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SPP 1167:  Quantitative Precipitation Forecast PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitativae Praedictio)

Subject Area Geosciences
Term from 2004 to 2010
Project identifier Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5472089
 
Water is the prerequisite for the major processes of life. The atmosphere regulates the availability of water above all through precipitation. Therefore, predictability of the atmosphere in general and of precipitation in particular is of extraordinary societal, economic and social significance. Further development of meteorological forecasting methods and observation systems has constantly improved the quality of short-range (up to 3 days) and medium-range (up to 10 days) weather forecast, e.g. for temperature and wind, in the past years. In contrast, precipitation forecast still is associated with the same deficiencies than 16 years ago. Quantitative precipitation forecast is of such poor quality that it can hardly be used for many applications. Presently, deficiencies include (a) the incomplete modellings of the components of the water cycle, (b) gaps, non-resolved structures, and errors of the initial fields, (c) inadequate methods of optimally linking observations with forecast models (assimilation of data into models), but also (d) basic problems in the understanding and interpretation of deterministic weather forecast models. Therefore the Priority Programme has the following superordinate scientific objectives:
-- identification of physical and chemical processes responsible for the deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecast
-- determination and use of the potentials of existing and new data and process descriptions to improve quantitative precipitation forecast
-- determination of the prognosis capacity of weather forecast models by statistico-dynamic analyses with respect to quantitative precipitation forecast
The Priority Programme has a very close cooperation with the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD). DWD makes available its operational forecast system and a supercomputer environment to universities and research institutes.
DFG Programme Priority Programmes
International Connection Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, USA

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