SPP 1167:  Quantitative Precipitation Forecast PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitativae Praedictio)

Subject Area Geosciences
Term from 2004 to 2010
Project identifier Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5472089
 

Final Report

Final Report Year 2011

Final Report Abstract

The overall scientific objectives have been I Identification of physical and chemical processes responsible for the deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecast II Determination and use of the potentials of existing and new data and process descriptions to improve quantitative precipitation forecast III Determination of the prognosis capacity of weather forecast models by statistico-dynamic analyses with respect to quantitative precipitation forecast All together about thirty groups from University institutes, research centers and the German National Meteorological Service DWD cooperated to advance the weather forecasting capabilities for precipitation. More than 100 publications and the COPS experiment which was the largest meteorological field experiment conducted so far on quantitative precipitation forecasting in low-mountain regions and in Germany over the past 20 years gave the PP1167-PQP a high international visibility. DWD integrated itself much closer into the German weather and climate research community through intensive collaboration on various areas than in the years before. The concentration of the work within the PP1167-PQP on highly relevant research like data assimilation or the validation of forecasts has stimulated new coordinated research and educational efforts at various University institutes, in the cooperation with DWD and major research institutes. It initiated further coordinated research like the Hans Ertel Zentrum for Weather Research funded by Federal Ministry of Transportation, Building and Urban Development via DWD. To bundle the research efforts in the PP1167-PQP and to initiate synergy between the expertises of the various groups the coordination team of PP1167 organized the different projects under four topics. These have been (1) Orography and convection, (2) Data assimilation and stochastic system studies, (3) Microphysics of clouds and aerosols, (4) Verification. Within these topics a series of equally important key findings for quantitative precipitations forecasting and verification could be established. Among them are e.g. ―Resolution is the solution‖: the comparison of types of forecasts from models of different resolution reveals that models with the smallest grid size / highest resolution tend to produce the better forecasts; or that the information from remote sensing devices like precipitation from radar or water vapor structures from GPS-based methods has a positive impact on short range precipitation prediction provided that a state-of-the-art forecast model is combined with an equally realistic data assimilation system.

Publications

DFG Programme Priority Programmes
International Connection Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, USA

Projects

Spokesperson Professor Dr. Andreas N. Hense