Uncovering the role of sampling intensities in shaping trends of biological invasions

• Applicant: Dr. Hanno Seebens
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 534019950

Biodiversity has declined rapidly during recent decades, with severe implications for nature and human well-being. The World Economic Forum ranks the biodiversity crisis among the top ten greatest risks for humankind. Nevertheless, there is an ongoing intense debate of how to measure spatial and temporal trends in biodiversity data with repeated calls for and proposals of developing robust indicators to measure such trends. A common issue represents the effects of varying sampling efforts on observed biodiversity trends. In this proposal, we will address the interacting role of sampling and biodiversity change on driving observed time series of species records to allow drawing more robust conclusions about actual trends in biodiversity. We will focus on one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss, namely biological invasions, which is of particular interest in this regard, because of the rapid changes of alien species distributions and the challenges of keeping pace with it using current monitoring programs and surveys. In the proposed study, we will apply statistical and modelling approaches to (1) develop and test new ways to estimate the introduction rate of alien species, given imperfect detection; (2) test and apply methods to estimate sampling effort that can be used as auxiliary data to improve estimation of introduction rates; (3) apply the developed methods to a unique local system, characterised by a single invasion pathway and a well-defined temporal window of invasion potential, to estimate the role of vector activity and establishment in impacting the introduction rates of different taxa that vary in their dispersive capabilities and species-pool characteristics; (4) use a global perspective to synthesize the role of trends in detection in producing global patterns of change in alien numbers. The outcome of these analyses will improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of alien species accumulation and contribute to the understanding of how ecological communities shape the Anthropocene. We will focus on different systems, which will complement each other in terms of spatial extent (regional+global), geographic focus (Germany+Israel) and realms (terrestrial+marine).

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Israel
• Co-Investigator: Professor Dr. Ingolf Kühn
• International Co-Applicant: Professor Jonathan Belmaker, Ph.D.