Assessing the Effects of Ballot Sequence and Candidate Information on Voting Behavior with Evidence from Mixed-Member Electoral Systems

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Susumu Shikano
• Subject Area: Empirical Social Research ; Political Science
• Term: from 2019 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 421433480

Mixed-member electoral systems combine two forms of selecting representatives – typically constituency races using first-past-the-post (FPTP) rules and proportional representation (PR) mechanisms with a large district magnitude – into a single election. In the current literature on mixed-member electoral systems, there have been a dispute how both components of mixed-member systems affects citizens’ behavior. Researchers taking the view of controlled comparisons assume that each component affects citizens’ decision making independently from each other so that FPTP tier produces bipartism and PR produces multipartism. In contrast, other researchers emphasize interaction between both components (contamination effects) and argue that mixed member systems operate differently from the simple addition of pure FPTP and PR systems. A critical gap in resolving the above dispute on the effects of mixed-member systems is the micro-level foundations of how individuals interact with their ballots and make decisions at the polls. Our project is designed to address this critical knowledge gap by focusing on the intersection between research on ballot structure and its impact on voting in mixed-member electoral systems. Our primary research questions ask: 1) What information do voters use on ballots to inform their voting decisions; 2) How do voters use information from party list ballots to inform their constituency votes (and vice versa) in mixed-member electoral systems; and 3) How does the sequence of ballot choices influence voting outcomes? Our approach to investigating this problem is unique. Most of the research on voting in mixed-member systems has relied on district-level election returns or representative survey data. While this work has provided valuable insights, it does not assess voters as they interact with the ballots. Furthermore, most of the research on ballot design has emphasized the order of candidates on the ballot; our project focuses on the order in which voters make choices for different offices, as well. We use survey experiments and a laboratory environment to control and vary the information voters receive and the sequence in which they interact with this information. We will conduct the survey experiments in Germany, Japan and Lithuania, which have significant variations in the adopted mixed member systems, party competition and further factors. The laboratory experiments focusing more on psychological mechanisms will be conducted in Germany. The data we gather from these two approaches will enable us to evaluate our hypotheses about the micro-level behavior of voters. The findings should allow us to adjudicate between two major theoretical explanations for outcomes in mixed-member electoral systems ("controlled comparisons" and "contamination effects") and to develop knowledge about how the sequence of voting for offices influences behavior.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: USA
• Co-Investigator: Professor Erik Herron, Ph.D.