EXC 177:  Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction (CliSAP)

Final Report Abstract

The overarching scientific CliSAP goals were to analyze ongoing and past changes of the climate system, to determine predictable elements of the climate system over a broad range of space and time scales and to determine uncertainties intrinsic to predictions of important climate system and environmental indices. CliSAP investigated these problems interdisciplinary by bringing together natural and social scientists. A major achievement of CliSAP’s integrated research program was the integration across disciplines, research areas and topics. In terms of regional impacts, CliSAP aimed to quantify consequences of climate change on humans, including economy, security and environment, with a focus on Northern Europe. CliSAP has significantly advanced climate sciences by analyzing climate variability, by identifying predictable climate elements, by assessing uncertainties of climate projections, and by studying potential climate change interactions with society, including the identification of societal benefits from climate knowledge. CliSAP has established strong, innovative interlinkages between the internationally renowned physical climate sciences in Hamburg with climate-related research in social sciences, economics and humanities. Through these interlinkages, climate research in Hamburg has become unique in its breadth, enabling it to cover a wide spectrum of integrated climate system science as well as research-based graduate and post-graduate education. Major scientific achievements can be summarized like this: 1) CliSAP showed that internal variability is much larger than previously thought 2) CliSAP spear-headed decadal climate predictions and identified multiyear predictive skill 3) CliSAP lifted media communication studies to global levels 4) CliSAP voiced reasons of claims of connections between climate change and conflicts CliSAP has produced more than 2800 relevant publications. The activities of the North German Climate Office e.g., the IPCC-like compilation of knowledge about climate change and impact in the Hamburg Metropolitan Region, started a constructive dialog with the public and stakeholders. Further examples are the research on changing management practices in forestry and on management options to mitigate local climate change by urban planning or water management, or the design of regional climate services. At organizational level, CliSAP gathered key interdisciplinary expertise in the Hamburg area around the climate topic, and strengthened existing expertise, especially at Universität Hamburg where numerous research groups in various departments across faculties have oriented their research profiles strongly towards climate change. The Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit was founded to lead forward the heritage of CliSAP involving the graduate school SICSS, infrastructure and operational support. On a Hamburg wide level, the KlimaCampus Hamburg network now brings together all relevant institutions working on climate.

Link to the final report

https://dx.doi.org/10.2314/GBV:1697023991

Publications

• 2008: Decadal Sea Level Changes in the 50-Year GECCO Ocean Synthesis. J. Climate 21 1876–1890
  Köhl A, Stammer D
  
• 2008: Extreme event return times in long-term memory processes near 1/f, Nonlin. Processes Geophys 15, 557-565
  Blender R, Fraedrich K Sienz F
  
• 2008: Impact of daily fluctuations on long-term predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 35
  von Storch J-S, Haak H
  
• 2008: Methane emission from Siberian arctic polygonal tundra: eddy covariance measurements and modeling. Global Change Biol 14 1395 - 1408
  Wille C, Kutzbach L, Sachs T, Wagner D, Pfeiffer E-M
  
• 2009: Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. J. Climate 22 3926–3938
  Pohlmann H, Jungclaus JH, Köhl A, Stammer D Marotzke J
  
• 2009: Late Quaternary vegetation-climate feedbacks, Clim Past 5, 203-216
  Claussen M
  
• 2009: Regional meteorological-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potential for coastal and offshore Applications. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90 849 - 860
  Weisse R, von Storch H, Callies U, Chrastansky A, Feser F, Grabemann I, et int. Woth K
  
• 2009: Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. Global Change Biology, 15: 1377–1393
  Möllmann C, Diekmann R, Müller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G, Plikshs M, Axe P
  
• 2009: The European Emissions Trading Scheme: An exploratory study of how companies learn to account for carbon, Accounting, Organizations and Society 34, Issues 3-4, 488-498
  Engels A
  
• 2009: Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system. Nature 461 607-613
  Stevens B, Feingold G
  
• 2010: A sea-ice thickness retrieval model for 1.4 GHz radiometry and application to airborne measurements over low salinity sea-ice, The Cryosphere 4 583-592
  Kaleschke L, Maaß N, Haas C, Hendricks S, Heygster G Tonboe RT
  
• 2010: Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past 6 723-737
  Jungclaus JH, Lorenz SJ, Timmreck C, Reick CH, Brovkin V, Six K, Segschneider J, Giorgetta MA, Crowley TJ, Pongratz J, Krivova NA, Vieira LE, Solanki SK, Klocke D, Botzet M, Esch M, Gayler V, Haak H, Raddatz TJ, Roeckner E, Schnur R, Widmann H, Claussen M, Stevens B, Marotzke J
  
• 2010: Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies, Carbon Balance and Management 5:8
  Köhl M, Hildebrandt R, Olschofksy K, Köhler R, Rötzer T, Mette T, Pretzsch H, Köthke M, Dieter M, Abiy M, Makeschin F, Kenter B
  
• 2010: Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1383-1399
  Bathiany S, Claussen M, Brovkin V, Raddatz T, Gayler V
  
• 2010: Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming. Nature 467 309-12
  Zahn M, von Storch H
  
• 2010: Long-term changes and regional differences in temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan area of Hamburg. Int J Climatol 30 1121-1136
  Schlünzen KH, Hoffmann P, Rosenhagen G, Riecke W
  
• 2010: Towards Multidecadal Consistent Meteosat Surface Albedo Time Series. Remote Sensing 2 957-967
  Loew A, Govaerts Y
  
• 2011: Environmental policy under model uncertainty: a robust optimal control approach, Clim Change 107 225-239
  Funke L and Paetz M
  
• 2011: Identification of linear relationships from noisy data using errors-in-variables models—relevance for reconstruction of past climate from tree-ring and other proxy information, Climatic Change, 105, 155-177
  Kutzbach L, Thees B, Wilmking M
  
• 2011: Klimabericht für die Metropolregion Hamburg. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg
  von Storch H, Claussen M, Eds.
  
• 2011: Local Climate Change Governance, in Engels A, Ed: Global Transformations towards a Low Carbon Society, (Working Paper Series), University of Hamburg / KlimaCampus: Hamburg
  Pohlmann A
  
• 2011: Phytoplankton behavior affects ocean mixed layer dynamics through biological-physical feedback mechanisms. Geophys Res Lett 38
  Sonntag S, Hense I
  
• 2011: Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice. Geophys Res Lett 38
  Tietsche S, Notz D, Jungclaus JH, Marotzke J
  
• 2011: Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Greenland Ice Melting. Surv Geophys 32 621 - 642
  Stammer D, Agarwal N, Herrmann P, Köhl A, Mechoso CR
  
• 2011: The physical sciences and climate politics, in The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society, Oxford University Press: Oxford UK. 113 - 128
  von Storch H, Bunde A, Stehr N
  
• 2012: Climate Change and Violent Conflict. Science 336 869-871
  Scheffran J, Brzoska M, Kominek J, Link PM, Schilling J
  
• 2012: Introduction: Post-Normal Climate Science. Nat Cult 7 121-132
  Krauss W, Schafer MS, von Storch H
  
• 2012: Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science 335 76 - 79
  Matei D, Baehr J, Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Mueller WA, Marotzke J
  
• 2012: Potential predictability of the North Atlantic heat transport based on an oceanic state estimate. J Clim 25 8475 - 8486
  Tiedje B, Köhl A, Baehr J
  
• 2012: Taking stock: A meta-analysis of studies on the media’s coverage of science. Public Understanding of Science 21 650-663
  Schäfer MS
  
• 2013: Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century. J Clim 26 6859 - 6881
  Brovkin V, Boysen L, Arora VK, Boisier J, Cadule P, Chini L, et int. Weiss M
  
• 2013: Evaluation of vegetation cover and land-surface albedo in MPI-ESM CMIP5 simulations. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5 48 - 57
  Brovkin V, Boysen L, Raddatz T, Gayler V, Loew A, Claussen M
  
• 2013: Is There a Medialization of Climate Science? Results From a Survey of German Climate Scientists. Sci Commu 35 626 - 653
  Ivanova A, Schäfer M, Schlichting I, Schmidt A
  
• 2013: Media attention for climate change around the world: A comparative analysis of newspaper coverage in 27 countries. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 23 1233-1248
  Schmidt A, Ivanova A, Schafer MS
  
• 2013: Modelling the impact of urbanisation on regional climate in the Greater London Area. Int J Climatol 33 2388-2401
  Grawe D, Thompson HL, Salmond JA, Cai XM, Schluenzen KH
  
• 2013: Observed and simulated variability of the AMOC at 26 degrees N and 41 degrees N. Geophys Res Lett 40 1159 - 1164
  Mielke C, Frajka-Williams E, Baehr J
  
• 2013: On the Private Provision of Intertemporal Public Goods with Stock Effects. Environ & Resource Econ 55 245 - 255
  Gerber A, Wichardt PC
  
• 2013: Public climate-change skepticism, energy preferences and political participation. Global Environ Change 23 1018-1027
  Engels A, Hüther O, Schäfer M, Held H
  
• 2013: Simulated climate-vegetation interaction in semi-arid regions affected by plant diversity. Nat Geosci 6 954-958
  Claussen M, Bathiany S, Brovkin V, Kleinen T
  
• 2013: Snow thickness retrieval over thick Arctic sea ice using SMOS satellite data. Cryosphere 7 1971-1989
  Maaß N, Kaleschke L, Tian-Kunze X, Drusch M
  
• 2013: The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits. Clim Change 119 247 - 259
  Plugge D, Baldauf T, Köhl M
  
• 2013: Valuing the carbon exposure of European utilities. The role of fuel mix, permit allocation and replacement investments. Energy Econ 36 431-443
  Koch N, Bassen A
  
• 2013: Weather Pattern Classification to Represent the Urban Heat Island in Present and Future Climate. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52 2699 - 2714
  Hoffmann P, Schlünzen H
  
• 2014: Climate-driven changes in chemical weathering and associated phosphorus release since 1850: Implications for the land carbon balance. Geophys Res Lett 41 3553-3558
  Goll DS, Moosdorf N, Hartmann J, Brovkin V
  
• 2014: CO2-Induced Sahel Greening in Three CMIP5 Earth System Models. J Clim 27 7163-7184
  Bathiany S, Claussen M, Brovkin V
  
• 2014: Ensemble initialization of the oceanic component of a coupled model through bred vectors at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Geosci Model Dev 7 453 - 461
  Baehr J, Piontek R
  
• 2014: Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis. Clim Change 126 305-318
  Neubersch D, Held H, Otto A
  
• 2014: Permafrost-Affected Soils of the Russian Arctic and their Carbon Pools. Solid Earth 5 595 - 609
  Zubrzycki S, Kutzbach L, Pfeiffer E-M
  
• 2014: Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes. Clim Change 124 317-332
  Slangen ABA, Carson M, Katsman CA, van de Wal RSW, Kohl A, Vermeersen LLA, Stammer D
  
• 2014: Salt marshes in the silica budget of the North Sea. Cont Shelf Res 82 31-36
  Moosdorf N, Weiss A, Muller F, Lauerwald R, Hartmann J, Worrall F
  
• 2014: Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use and land cover change carbon flux estimates. Earth Sys Dy 5 177 - 195
  Pongratz J, Reick CH, Houghton R, House J
  
• 2015: A Meta-Analysis on the Return on Investment of Geospatial Data and Systems: A Multi-Country Perspective. Transactions in GIS 19 169 - 187
  Trapp N, Schneider U, McCallum I, Fritz S, Schill C, Borzacchiello MT, et int. Craglia M
  
• 2015: A New Global Climatology of Annual Land Surface Temperature. Remote Sens 7 2850 - 2870
  Bechtel B
  
• 2015: Climate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. Migration Develop.
  Brzoska M, Fröhlich C
  
• 2015: Comparison of SSM/I and AMSR-E Sea Ice Concentrations With ASPeCt Ship Observations Around Antarctica. Ieee T Geosci Remote 53 1985-1996
  Beitsch A, Kern S, Kaleschke L
  
• 2015: Effect of horizontal resolution on ECHAM6-AMIP performance. Clim Dyn 45 185-211
  Hertwig E, von Storch J-S, Handorf D, Dethloff K, Fast I, Krismer T
  
• 2015: Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998-2012. Geophys Res Lett 42 8131 - 8139
  Li C, Stevens B, Marotzke J
  
• 2015: Gender, conflict and global environmental change. Peace Review: A Journal of Social Justice 27 137 - 146
  Fröhlich C, Gioli G
  
• 2015: Hurricane Gonzalo and its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96 51 - 55
  Feser F, Barcikowska M, Haeseler S, Levebvre C, Schubert-Frisius M, Stendel M, et int. Zahn M
  
• 2015: Inorganic Carbon Fluxes in the Inner Elbe Estuary, Germany. Estuaries and Coasts 38 192-210
  Amann T, Weiss A, Hartmann J
  
• 2015: Mapping Local Climate Zones for a Worldwide Database of the Form and Function of Cities. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inf 4 199-219
  Bechtel B, Alexander PJ, Böhner J, Ching J, Conrad O, Feddema J, et int. Stewart I
  
• 2015: Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI- ESM seasonal prediction system. J Clim 28 256-271
  Domeisen DI, Butler AH, Fröhlich K, Bittner M, Müller WA, Baehr J
  
• 2015: System for automated geoscientific analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1. 4. Geosci Model Dev 8 1991-2007
  Conrad O, Bechtel B, Bock M, Dietrich H, Fischer E, Gerlitz L, et int. Böhner J
  
• 2015: The Dynamics of Issue Attention in Online Communication on Climate Change. Media and Communication 3 17 - 33
  Lörcher I, Neverla I
  
• 2015: The effect of atmospheric radiative heating by clouds on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation. J Adv Model Earth Syst 7 854–864
  Crueger T, Stevens B
  
• 2015: The impact of Domestic Policy Constrains on International Environmental Agreements, in Political Economy and Instruments of Environmental Politics. Schneider F, Kollmann A, Reic A, Eds, MIT Press. 177-196
  Köke S, Lange A
  
• 2015: The impact of regional multidecadal and centuryscale internal climate variability on sea level trends in CMIP5 models. J Clim 28 853- 861
  Carson M, Köhl A, Stammer D
  
• 2015: The North Sea - A shelf sea in the Anthropocene. J Mar Sys 141 18-33
  Emeis KC, van Beusekom J, Callies U, Ebinghaus R, Kannen A, Kraus G, et int. Zorita E
  
• 2015: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Clim Dyn 44 2723-2735
  Baehr J, Fröhlich K, Botzet M, Domeisen DI, Kornblueh L, Notz D, et int. Müller WA
  
• 2016: Conflict and cooperation in the water-security nexus: a global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change. Wiley Interdisc Rev: Water 3 495-515
  Link PM, Scheffran J, Ide T
  
• 2016: Considering the locals: coastal construction and destruction in times of climate change on Anjouan, Comoros. Nat Resour Forum 40 112-126
  Ratter B, Petzold J, Sinane K
  
• 2016: High-resolution land surface fluxes from satellite and reanalysis data (HOLAPS v1.0): evaluation and uncertainty assessment. Geosci Model Dev 9 2499-2532
  Loew A, Peng J, Borsche M
  
• 2016: North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium. Nat Geosci 9 630 - 635
  Gagen MH, Zorita E, McCarroll D, Zahn M, Young GHF, Robertson I
  
• 2016: Organisationstheoretische Perspektiven auf die Wissenschaftskommunikation, in Forschungsfeld Wissenschaftskommunikation: ein Handbuch, Bonfadelli H, Fähnrich B, Lüthje C, Milde J, Rhomberg M, Schäfer MS, Eds, Springer Fachmedien: Wiesbaden. 63 - 81
  Rödder S
  
• 2016: SMOS sea ice product: Operational application and validation in the Barents Sea marginal ice zone. Remote Sens Environ 180 264-273
  Kaleschke L, Tian-Kunze X, Maaß N, Beitsch A, Wernecke A, Miernecki M, et int. Casal T
  
• 2016: Statistical Analysis of the Acceleration of Baltic Mean Sea- Level Rise, 1900–2012. Frontiers in Marine Science 3
  Hünicke B, Zorita E
  
• 2016: The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies, in Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace, Brauch HG, Oswald Spring U, Grin J, Scheffran J, Eds, Springer International Publishing: Cham. 285 - 304
  Ide T, Scheffran J, Link M, Schilling J
  
• 2016: The importance of external climate forcing for the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in past and future climate. Ocean Sci 12 807 - 823
  Tim N, Zorita E, Huenicke B, Yi X, Emeis K
  
• 2016: Vertical heat and salt fluxes due to resolved and parameterized meso-scale Eddies. Ocean Modell 108 1-19
  von Storch J-S, Haak H, Hertwig E, Fast I
  
• 2017: Competing knowledge systems and adaptability to sea-level rise in The Bahamas. Area early view
  Petzold J, Ratter B, Holdschlag A
  
• 2017: Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 44 4263-4271
  Burgard C, Notz D
  
• 2017: Global warming and a potential tipping point in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation: the role of risk aversion. Environ Resour Econ 67 93 - 125
  Belaia M, Funke M, Glanemann N
  
• 2017: Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5° N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Clim Dyn 49 2975 - 2990
  Müller V, Pohlmann H, Düsterhus A, Matei D, Marotzke J, Müller WA, et int. Baehr J
  
• 2017: Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th century. Earth Sys Dy 1031 - 1046
  Karabil S, Zorita E, Baehr J
  
• 2017: Resilience and environmental security: towards joint application in peacebuilding. Global Ch P Securrcy 29 107-127
  Schilling J, Nash SL, Ide T, Scheffran J, Froese R, Prondzinski Pv
  
• 2017: The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public. Nat Clim Change 7 783-787
  Brüggemann M, De Silva-Schmidt F, Hoppe I, Arlt D, Schmitt JB
  
• 2017: Understanding carbon trading: Effects of delegating CO2 responsibility on organizations' trading behaviour. Clim Poli 17 346-360
  Rodriguez Lopez JM, Engels A, Knoll L
  
• 2018: Application of Thermal and Phenological Land Surface Parameters for Improving Ecological Niche Models of Betula utilis in the Himalayan Region. Remote Sens 10 1 - 19
  Bobrowski M, Bechtel B, Böhner J, Oldeland J, Weidinger J, Schickhoff U
  
• 2018: Atlantic Ocean heat transport influences interannual-to-decadal surface temperature predictability in the North Atlantic region. J Clim 31 6763 - 6782
  Borchert L, Müller WA, Baehr J
  
• 2018: Hamburger Klimabericht. Springer Spektrum, Berlin
  von Storch H, Meinke I, Claussen M, Eds.
  
• 2018: Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1,5°C and 2°C of global warming. Environ Res Lett 13
  Suarez-Gutierrez L, Li C, Müller WA, Marotzke J
  
• 2018: Is It Possible to Distinguish Global and Regional Climate Change from Urban Land Cover Induced Signals? A Mid-Latitude City Example. Urban Sci 2 1 - 22
  Wiesner S, Bechtel B, Fischereit J, Grützun V, Hoffmann P, Leitl B, et int. Thomsen S
  
• 2018: Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing permafrost. Nat Clim Change 8 1758- 6798
  Knoblauch C, Beer C, Liebner S, Grigoriev MN, Pfeiffer E-M
  
• 2018: Opportunity makes opinion leaders: analyzing the role of first-hand information in opinion leadership in social media networks. Information, Communication & Society 1 - 22
  Brüggemann M, Walter S
  
• 2018: The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation. Clim Dyn 50 201 - 213
  Yi X, Hünicke B, Tim N, Zorita E
  
• 2018: Time series analysis of moderate resolution land surface temperatures, in Remote Sensing: Time Series Image Processing, Weng Q, Ed, Taylor & Francis
  Bechtel B, Sismanidis P
  
• 2019: Cost Risk Analysis: Dynamically Consistent Decision-Making under Climate Targets. Environ Resour Econ 72 247-261
  Held H
  
• 2019: Diagnosing the influence of mesoscale eddy fluxes on the deep western boundary current in the 1/10° STORM / NCEP simulation. J Phys Oceanography 49 751-764
  Lüschow V, von Storch JS, Marotzke J
  
• 2019: Partitioning net ecosystem exchange of CO2 on the pedon scale in the Lena River Delta, Siberia. Biogeosci 16 1543-1562
  Eckhardt T, Knoblauch C, Kutzbach L, Holl D, Simpson G, Abakumov E, Pfeiffer EM
  
• (2020) Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target. Science advances 6 (2) eaaw9490
  Li, Chao; Held, Hermann; Hokamp, Sascha; Marotzke, Jochem