Environmental responses of phenology to recent climate change and urbanisation

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Annette Menzel
• Subject Area: Forestry
• Term: from 2008 to 2014
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 70653851

Evidently, phenology is one of the best bio-indicators of recent climate change as spring events are predominantly triggered by temperature of the preceding months. However, only little is known about the spatial patterns of those observed changes in Germany as well as about their temporal features, such as change points. Especially urban areas might reveal other changes than rural areas and might exhibit non-linearities in their temperature response due to extreme events, which are most important to assess future impacts on vegetation. This project will analyse ample German wide phenological data (1951-2007, ~25 phenophases, ~2000 stations, in addition few long-term records covering the 20th century) as gridded data and for urban-rural gradients of larger cities. The newly introduced Bayesian methodology will allow a rigorous treatment of uncertainties when determining model and change point probabilities, frequencies of extreme events, mean functional behaviours and rates of change (trends). The detailed study sites at Nuremberg and Munich, together with the groups Albrecht/Auerswald, Traidl-Hoffmann/Behrendt, Müller-Starck, are most suitable to study other drivers besides temperature, which might be also more important in the future (e.g. drought effects).

• DFG Programme: Research Grants