Dynamic response of surface energy and mass balance of Vest- and Austfonna (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard) on climate change
Final Report Abstract
The DFG-funded work on Vestfonna ice cap during the International Polar Year and beyond has proven that the glaciers and ice caps of Nordaustlandet provide an excellent showcase of region-specific climate-glacier interrelation. While most glaciers on Svalbard have been retreating in recent decades this is not the case for the ice caps of Nordaustlandet. However, as anticipated in the proposal, we were able to show that processes that may eventually lead to a strongly non-linear response of the mass balance under continuing global warming are indeed already underway and can be observed for Vestfonna ice cap. This leads to the conclusion that Nordaustlandet, showing a rather well-balanced climatic mass balance in recent decades and only little variations of the calving fronts, may be subject of increasingly and strongly negative mass balance in the course of the 21st century. We could show that the climatic mass balance of Vestfonna can be adequately modelled by different approaches. When using an enhanced temperature-radiation index model, refreezing must also be taken into account since it contributed between 25% and 30% of the annual accumulation. Also, a reliable method for cloudiness parameterization is crucial in order to obtain resilient results. Snow drift plays a major role in redistributing accumulating snow on and beyond the ice cap as the example of small of De Geerfonna could show both in observations and in the snowdrift modeling. The excellent measurement data and the modelling results provide opportunities for further research. For instance, an adjusted temperature-radiation index model driven by climate projection data from CIMP5 can be run over the entire 21st century in order to provide CMB estimates of Vestfonna for the 21st century. This may also provide an estimate of Vestfonna ice cap’s contribution to future sea level rise. The excellent observational data and the European Arctic Reanalysis (EAR) data will enable to run a fully spatially distributed physically-based surface energy and mass balance model that couples boundary layer atmosphere and snow cover. We hope that this kind of research will result in an even better understanding of the energy fluxes and related processes in the snow cover and at the surface that influence the overall mass balance of glaciers and ice caps.
Publications
- (2011): An objective circulation pattern classification for the region of Svalbard. Geografiska Annaler, Series A, Physical Geography, 93 (4), 259-271
Käsmacher, O. & C. Schneider
- (2011): Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Kryosphäre in den Polargebieten. Geographische Rundschau, Jg. 63, Heft 12
Schneider, C., D. Scherer & M. Braun
- (2011): Changes of glacier frontal positions of Vestfonna (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard). Geografiska Annaler, Series A, Physical Geography, 93 (4), 301-310
Braun, M., V.A. Pohjola, R. Pettersson, M. Möller, R. Finkelnburg, U. Falk, D. Scherer & C. Schneider
- (2011): Climatic mass balance of the ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard - a spatially distributed assessment using ERA-Interim and MODIS data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, F03009
Möller, M., R. Finkelnburg, M. Braun, R. Hock, U. Jonsell, V.A. Pohjola, D. Scherer & C. Schneider
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JF001905) - (2011): Observation and modelling of glacier mass balances in Patagonia and Svalbard: application and enhancement of temperature-index based modelling approaches. Dissertation, Fakultät für Georessourcen und Materialtechnik, Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen
Möller, M.
- (2011): Snowpack characteristics of Vestfonna and De Geerfonna (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard) – a spatiotemporal analysis based on multiyear snow-pit data. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 93 (4), 273-285
Möller, M., R. Möller, E. Beaudon, O.-P.Mattila, R. Finkelnburg, M. Braun, M. Grabiec, U. Jonsell, B. Luks, D. Puczko, D. Scherer & C. Schneider
- (2011): Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation volume from shallow cores from Vestfonna ice cap (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard). Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 93 (4), 287-299
Beaudon, E., L. Arppe, U. Jonsell, T. Martma, M. Möller, V.A. Pohjola, D. Scherer & J.C. Moore
- (2012): A minimal, statistical model for the surface albedo of Vestfonna ice cap, Svalbard. The Cryosphere, 6 (5), 1049-1061
Möller, M.
(See online at https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1049-2012) - (2013): Climate variability of Svalbard in the first decade of the 21st century and its impact on Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet : An analysis based on field observations, remote sensing and numerical modeling. Dissertation, Fakultät VI - Planen Bauen Umwelt, Technische Universität Berlin
Finkelnburg, R.
(See online at https://dx.doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-3598) - (2013): Snowdrift modelling for the Vestfonna ice cap, north-eastern Svalbard. The Cryosphere, 7 (4), 1287-1301
Sauter, T., M. Möller, R. Finkelnburg, M. Grabiec, D. Scherer & C. Schneider
(See online at https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1287-2013) - (2013): Variability of the climatic mass balance of Vestfonna ice cap (northeastern Svalbard), 1979-2011. Annals of Glaciology, 54 (63), 254-264
Möller, M., R. Finkelnburg, M. Braun, D. Scherer & C. Schneider
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG63A407) - Dynamic modelling of future glacier changes: mass-balance/elevation feedback in projections for the Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard. Journal of Glaciology, Vol 61 Issue 230, S. 1121-1136, 2015
Schäfer, M., M. Möller, T. Zwinger, J.C. Moore
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J184) - Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard). Scientific Reports, 5, Article number: 8079, January 2015. 10 S.
Möller, M. & C. Schneider
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1038/srep08079)
