EU-Osterweiterung und Instabilität auf den Agrarmärkten Mittel- und Osteuropas
Final Report Abstract
The objective of the project was to study the consequences of the EU east enlargement on the instability of agricultural markets in CEECs. It was expected that these markets would stabilize as a consequence of a more stable political and economical framework. The project comprises three main components: a time series analysis of prices and yields in the CEECs, the EU and world markets during the transition process; a methodological component on quadrature formulas as the framework to make the agricultural market model ESIM stochastic; and the simulation of the EU enlargement with ESIM. The time series analysis showed that for grains (wheat and barley) most of the CEECs were exposed to a significantly higher volatility of prices than that observed in the EU, but similar to that of world markets. For rapeseed, compared with the EU and world markets, no significant differences could be observed for most of the CEECs. Grain and oilseed prices in the majority of the CEECs exhibited a significant correlation with world market prices indicating a high level of liberalization. A slightly higher volatility could be observed in the transition period pointing out that the transition process itself probably had a negative influence on market stability. The analysis of yields highlighted a productivity decrease at the beginning of the transition process with an increase in instability. The study of quadratures brought a simplification of formulas used in combination with market models as well as the clarification of misleading indications for the correlation of generated points made in the literature. The quadratures proved to be a promising tool (efficient and time saving) that can be applied for further instability analyses. However, a validation of results with Monte Carlo stochastic versions with high amounts of runs (1000 – 2000) is recommended, especially when the model structure may create an asymmetric course of results (e.g. production quotas, limited export subsidies, tariff rate quotas, etc.) and when the number of stochastic variables is high. The analysis of the consequences of the EU enlargement with ESIM exhibited that price volatility for barley and rapeseed in the near future (2015) for the CEECs will be very similar to that of world markets. When compared to market instability during transition this will decrease for the majority of the countries. For some of them, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, who protected these sectors, price instability will increase. In the case of wheat a lower price volatility for the CEECs was obtained due to the stabilizing effect of EU price policies (intervention price, limited export subsidy, tariff rate quota, and threshold price) for this market. Further applications of the stochastic version of ESIM are planned to follow.
Publications
- (2008). Including Stochastic Elements in the Model Analysis. Draft Final Deliverable
Artavia, M., Möller, T., Grethe, H.
- (2009). Correlated Order Three Gaussian Quadratures in Stochastic Simulation Modelling. Twelfth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, June 10-12, Santiago de Chile
Artavia, M., Möller, T., Grethe, H., Zimmermann, G.
- (2010). A Conceptual Framework for Multi-Regional Climate Change Assessments for International Market Systems with Long-Term Investments. In: Climatic Change
Winkler, J., Thornsbury, S., Artavia, M., Chmielewski, F., Kirschke, D., Lee, S., Liszewska, M., Loveridge, S., Tan, P., Zhong, S., Andresen, J., Black, R., Kurlus, R., Nizalov, D., Olynk, N., Ustrnul, Z., Zavalloni, C., Bisanz, J., Bujdosó, G., Fusina, L., Hilsendegen, P., Lar, K., Malarzewski, L., Moeller, T., Murmylo, R., Niedzwiedz, T., Nizalova, O., Prawiranata, H., Rothwell, N., van Ravensway, J., von Witzke, H., Woods, M.
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1) - (2010). Ertrags- und Preisinstabilität auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland und der EU – Betriebswirtschaftliche und agrarpolitische Implikationen. In: Rentenbank: Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise und volatiler Märkte auf die Agrarwirtschaft. Schriftenreihe der Rentenbank, Band 26: 53-87
Artavia, M., Deppermann, A., Filler, G., Grethe, H., Häger, A., Kirschke, D., Odening, M.
- (2010). Ertrags- und Preisinstabilität auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland und der EU. 50th Conference of the GeWiSoLa, September 29 - October 1, Braunschweig
Artavia, M., Deppermann, A., Filler, G., Grethe, H., Häger, A., Kirschke, D., Odening, M.
