High-resolution Reanalyses and Impact Studies for Improving Process Understanding and Precipitation Forecast Skill based on the COPS Data Set

• Applicants: Dr. Gerd Gendt; Dr. Klaus Stephan, since 10/2009; Professor Dr. Volker Wulfmeyer
• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2004 to 2011
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5426792

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is one of the major challenges in numerical weather prediction (NWP). This is true for QPF ranging from synoptic-scale to small-scale convection. The main goal of this proposal is to improve the short-range QPF on scales of a few hundred km and a few hours. To achieve a significant improvement of QPF on these scales the atmospheric variables, which are representing the pre-convective conditions, need to be determined. Hence an innovative combination of data assimilation techniques and observations is proposed. Within this project, 4D water vapour, as well as wind and cloud data are considered. The focus is on advanced observing systems with high future potential such as GPS, lidar, passive remote sensing from geostationary satellites as well as novel in-situ sensors. Different state-of-the-art assimilation techniques will be compared to find the optimal approach to improve QPF. After the development of suitable observation operators, the optimal use of advanced remote sensing systems will be investigated using various Observing System Experiments (OSE's) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE's). To quantify the success, model independent data sets inferred from MSG/radar, GPS, and an innovative sounding system will be used for validation.

• DFG Programme: Priority Programmes
• Subproject of: SPP 1167: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitativae Praedictio)
• Participating Person: Professor Dr. Jens Wickert
• Ehemaliger Antragsteller: Dr. Werner Wergen, until 9/2009