Beyond Causal Exclusion: New Challenges for Multi-Level Causal Models

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Thomas Krödel
• Subject Area: Theoretical Philosophy
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 530765742

In recent years, causal models have emerged as the dominant tool for capturing complex causal structures. Initially developed as a formal method for analyzing empirical data, causal modeling techniques soon entered the philosophical discourse and are now regarded as a promising approach to reveal the nature of causation, in particular, the nature of higher-level and cross-level causal relations. While progress has been made in solving the so-called exclusion problem, that is, the issue that causes at different levels seem to compete with one another, applying the causal modeling approach to multi-level structures still poses several challenges: (1) What is the best framework for modeling multi-level causal relations? More specifically, should this framework be probabilistic or deterministic? (2) Multi-level causal models typically contain both causal relations and non-causal, “metaphysical” dependencies. What tools, not yet included in the standard causal modeling framework, are required to cover these additional dependencies? (3) Should the variables we include in a causal model have the same level of granularity, i.e., satisfy a proportionality constraint? (4) More generally, how should we choose the variables to be included in a causal model, and does the existence of causal relations depend on this – partly normative – decision? An integrated approach to multi-level causation that addresses these challenges simultaneously is still lacking. This project aims to fill this gap by developing a new theory of multi-level causation. Methodologically, we will take a conceptual engineering approach and measure the success of our theory in terms of how well it captures the desiderata of multi-level causal descriptions. This will shed new light not only on the philosophical debate about higher-level and multi-level causation, but also on causal models and our understanding of causation in general.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Switzerland
• Cooperation Partner: Professorin Dr. Vera Hoffmann-Kolss