Identifying Forest Refugia in Central European mountains under Climate Change

• Applicant: Dr. Cecile Remy
• Subject Area: Forestry
• Term: since 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 500726124

Mountain forest ecosystems provide multiple ecological services but are currently threatened by climate change and increasingly frequent and severe natural disturbances. In this context, future forest refugia may play a fundamental role to sustain long-term population prosperity, avoiding regional species extinctions and thus ensuring the continuation of ecosystem services and preserving unique biodiversity. To conserve these refugia in highly rugged mountainous topography under climate change, it is essential to simulate the evolution of these ecosystems at fine spatial resolution. However, the complexity of the environmental processes that govern their vegetation and disturbances dynamics in such diverse environments makes this exercise a challenge. In this project, we propose to use a state-of-the-art forest modelling approach to capture the distinct local environmental conditions in the mountains of Central Europe that are involved in forest refugia occurrence and maintenance. Our key objectives are to: 1) determine the environmental characteristics ensuring the resistance of future forest refugia to climate change, 2) quantify the vulnerability of future forest refugia in the face of projected increasing disturbance regimes (windthrow, insect outbreak) and 3) map the potential future forest refugia and associated risks due to disturbances by the end of the present century in Central European mountains. The results of this research will increase our knowledge of forest resilience under climate change and provide key tools for decision-makers to prioritize their biodiversity conservation efforts in areas with high biodiversity potential during the next decades.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Co-Investigators: Professor Dr. Wolfgang Buermann; Professor Dr. Rupert Seidl