Arms Races in the Interwar Period 1919-1939: Global Network Structures of Arms Diffusion and Destabilization

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Paul Thurner
• Subject Area: Political Science ; Empirical Social Research
• Term: from 2020 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 438291957

It is conventional wisdom that international arms transfers fuel local conflict and constitute the potential transmission belt for regional destabilization. The present high level of international security interdependence requires exact empirical knowledge about the specific mechanisms of local arms races to spiral upwards to regional and worldwide systemic crises and war. Current science provides no answer: The overall objective of this project is to scrutinize these dangerous linkages by using the interwar arms trade patterns of 1919-1939 as a historical laboratory for examining cascading crises. For the first time, all arms transfers worldwide will be reconstructed based on a systematic screening of historical sources – in particular the Statistical Year-Book of the Trade in Arms and Ammunition (1924-1938) – and of archives. The resulting unique network data will be published as a digital archive. A seminal new network theory of arms races and destabilization will be implemented by applying cutting-edge statistical network analysis. Discovering the specific coevolution of weapons transfers, alliances and hostilities in this historical watershed period will contribute to responsible strategies of global arms control and security cooperation. The global approach requires collaboration with experts in Asia, Africa, America, and Europe.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants