Spatial Verification of High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts using Wavelet Transformation

• Applicant: Privatdozentin Dr. Petra Friederichs, since 3/2018
• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2017 to 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 381875761

The aim of VeriWave is to develop a method for spatial verification of high-resolution ensemble model output with observations with non-negligible uncertainties. The proposed technique is based on wavelet transforms and bears the potential to yield sophisticated diagnostic information tailored to the physical process of interest and comparable to prominent feature based methods, while retaining the robustness to noise and the computational efficiency of scale separation methods. Particular emphasize lies on the orthogonality of the proposed verification score components intensity, location, orientation and texture, which allows one to reduce the high-dimensional data to only a few key characteristics. We propose the following research objectives: (1) Define an framework of wavelet transformations tailored to the data at hand and the physical process of interest, (2) derive a wavelet based methodology for spatial verification that yields diagnostic information on intensity, location and texture, (3) ensure that the methodology is robust with respect to varying parameters and observational uncertainties, (4) extend methodology to ensemble forecast, and (5) disseminate the proposed method by providing the software together with a user handbook.The proposed method will be studied on a hierarchy of data ranging from simple geometric test cases and synthetically disturbed forecaststo high-resolution case studies and large sets of ensemble data.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Ehemaliger Antragsteller: Dr. Michael Weniger, until 3/2018