FOR 896:  Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector (PANDOWAE)

• Subject Area: Geosciences
• Term: from 2008 to 2016
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 36043686

Accurate numerical weather forecasts are essential for the mitigation of the threat to life and property presented by high-impact weather systems. In Europe a variety of different systems present significant challenges for numerical weather prediction. These include winter storms, Mediterranean cyclones, flooding events, mesoscale convective systems and tropical cyclones, which transform into extratropical systems.
The aim of PANDOWAE is to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical processes responsible for the development of high-impact weather systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems. The majority of these high-impact weather events that threaten western and central Europe, while often small in scale, owe their development to larger scale motions. In the Atlantic-European sector the structure of the upper-tropospheric jetstream plays a crucial role in the development of European high-impact weather.
Thus the first of the three PANDOWAE research areas are disturbances in the jet stream, called upper-level Rossby wave trains; their generation, propagation and wave-breaking. The second research area is about processes associated with phase changes of water. They may cause disturbances in the lower troposphere, called diabatic rossby waves, which can lead to the development of intense cyclones and which are one focus of this research area. The third research area considers how to use a collection of different forecasts of the same situation (ensembles) and their flexible calculation dependent on the state of the flow. Those methods have potential to improve the forecast of HIW in an essential manner.
To reach the aims above the Research Unit will work with data of several operational forecast models to perform climatologies, joint case studies, data impact studies and more. PANDOWAE will represent a strong German contribution to the "World Weather Research Programme" THORPEX of the World Meteorological Organisation WMO.

• DFG Programme: Research Units
• International Connection: Switzerland

Projects

• Diagnosing Rossby wave train errors in numerical weather forecasts (RW-FCST) (Applicant Wirth, Volkmar )
• Investigating the impact of new active remote sensing instruments on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and developing observing strategies for these instruments for future field campaigns and operational applications (Applicant Weissmann, Martin )
• Large-scale and local control of severe weather: Towards adaptive ensemble forecasting (ADENS) (Applicant Craig, George )
• Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector (PANDOWAE Management) (Applicant Jones, Sarah C. )
• Quantifying the role of diabatic processes for forecast errors associated with mid-latitude weather systems - A combined observational, diagnostic and modelling approach (DIAP) (Applicants Dörnbrack, Andreas ;  Wernli, Heini )
• Rossby wave trains and their waveguides: dynamics, predictability and forecast errors (RW-GUIDE) (Applicants Riemer, Michael ;  Romppainen-Martius, Olivia )
• The impact of tropical - extratropical interactions on downstream predictability (TROP) (Applicant Jones, Sarah C. )
• The initiation, development, and predictability of Mediterranean weather on the synoptic and convective scale leading to extreme events (MED) (Applicant Corsmeier, Ulrich )
• The predictability of atmospheric blocking in global ensemble prediction systems (Applicant Jones, Sarah C. )
• Variability and extremes of poleward breaking Rossby waves over the North Atlantic - European Region (VARNAER) (Applicant Peters, Dieter H.W. )

• Spokesperson: Professorin Dr. Sarah C. Jones