Predicting redistribution of a key species in an ocean warming hotspot

• Applicant: Dr. Michael Oellermann
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions ; Oceanography
• Term: from 2016 to 2020
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 326692763

Redistribution of species triggered by anthropogenic warming is a global concern. Oceans are undergoing dramatic changes, as marine species are shifting ranges twelve times faster than species on land. This will not only cause loss of local biodiversity but also changes of vital food supplies for millions of humans. Effective adaptation and conservation strategies are crucial to reduce impact on nature and humans. However, this requires an early identification and forecasting of species shifting their distribution. Unfortunately, most predictions are uncertain due to lacking information on the complex responses of species to ocean warming. Temperature tolerance and the underlying metabolic performance of animals has shown to be key to understand species responses, yet how interactions with other species affect distribution shifts has been largely disregarded. This study aims to predict the range shift of a key species in an ocean warming hotspot by a novel integration of abiotic and biotic factors and by combining species level experiments with predictive modelling. The project will take place in Tasmania, Australia, which due to warming rates 3.8 times the global average, has become a natural laboratory to understand global effects of ocean warming. The ecologically and economically important Australian eastern rock lobster will serve as a case example. Its high potential shifting range into Tasmanian waters, and the so far unknown outcomes of its interaction with Tasmania`s most economically valuable crustacean species, the native southern rock lobster makes it an ideal example.The project will be conducted in cooperation with the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and the University of Tasmania and comprises five work packages: i) Collection of small scale habitat temperature data at the pole-ward distribution edge of eastern rock lobster. ii) Temperature and competitive acclimation of adult eastern and southern rock lobster, to assess whether reversible adjustments of body functions or competitive interactions affect temperature tolerance. iii) Experimental investigation of behavioral temperature preference and changes of competitive interaction between eastern and southern rock lobster along temperature gradients iv) Assessment of the physiological temperature tolerance at the whole animal, tissue and cellular level of both lobster species. v) Development of a Species Distribution Model, which integrates environmental, behavioral and physiological data to predict future redistribution of eastern rock lobster.The innovative integration of competition effects on species redistribution and the study of how physiology and behavior mutually shape thermal tolerance, will significantly improve predictions of species redistribution. This will be of high value for Tasmanian conservation and fisheries managers and will provide an important case study for future assessments of climate driven species range shifts.

• DFG Programme: Research Fellowships
• International Connection: Australia
• Host: Professorin Dr. Gretta Pecl