Project Details
Projekt
Storm surges, sea-level rise and adaptation responses at the German Baltic Sea coast - Compound Risks (SEASCApe II - Compound Risks)
Applicants
Professor Dr.-Ing. Arne Arns, since 3/2020; Dr. Jochen Hinkel; Professor Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Jensen; Professor Dr. Athanasios Vafeidis
Subject Area
Physical Geography
Geotechnics, Hydraulic Engineering
Geotechnics, Hydraulic Engineering
Term
from 2016 to 2023
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 313917492
Impacts of extreme events can be significantly exacerbated when different hazards occur concurrently. In the case of coastal flooding, compound events can arise from a combination of drivers such as storm surges, waves, precipitation and river discharge. However, coastal flood impact assessments typically only consider individual drivers and do not account for compounding effects. This may lead to an underestimation of the total hazard and associated impacts, particularly if combined with future changes in the likelihood and severity of certain drivers due to e.g. rising sea levels. The assessment of future coastal vulnerability is further complicated by changes in the spatial distribution of population, as well as in population characteristics (e.g. age structure). Assessing the vulnerability of population to compound hazards and developing adaptation strategies that can be adapted over time therefore requires integrated assessments that consider individual drivers, their compound effects, future socio-economic dynamics and their uncertainties.SEASCApe II aims to build on previous work conducted in SEASCApe Baltic (ongoing) and aims to address the above mentioned limitations and develop robust decision-support methods that account for a wide range of flood scenarios and their uncertainties, in short and long-term horizons. SEASCApe II involves multidisciplinary co-operation and comprises three work packages (WP1-3) that feed into each other and result in an integrated assessment of compound flood risk and relevant adaptation responses. WP1 will use advanced multivariate statistics and hydrodynamic models to assess the likelihood and extent of compound events along western Baltic Sea coastlines. This involves integrating multiple drivers such as waves and river run-off into a statistical and numerical storm-surge model developed for the western Baltic Sea. Flood scenarios, involving multiple drivers, will be provided to WP2, which will perform a detailed integrated coastal flood impact assessment by analyzing the exposure and vulnerability of the current and future population for two study sites at the western Baltic Sea coast; and will also assess the potential of different adaptation options targeted at reducing the impacts of compound events. WP3 will identify the optimal timing and value of flexibility of public investments in flood risk reduction for local protection, accommodation or retreat decisions. Information on compound events from WP1, combined with local exposure, land use and flood risk data from WP2, will be used to specify and calibrate simplified functions of the hazard reduction potential of a set of adaptation measures. The project will result in new insights as to how compound events can exacerbate flood risk and on the synergetic effects of different adaptation options, while optimising decisions for a range of criteria; thus providing coastal managers with valuable information for developing robust adaptation strategies.
DFG Programme
Priority Programmes
Ehemaliger Antragsteller
Dr.-Ing. Sönke Dangendorf, until 2/2020
