Unravelling the Areas Prone to Large Earthquakes in the Caucasian Region (KaukasUs-R)

• Applicant: Privatdozent Dr. Alik Ismail-Zadeh
• Subject Area: Geophysics
• Term: from 2015 to 2019
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 292119293

Dynamics of the lithosphere in the Caucasian region is manifested in the surface as large earthquakes. The proposed research is focused on a challenging problem: how to identify the areas prone to large seismic events in the region? The fundamental goal of the project is to contribute to mitigation of potential earthquake disasters. The goal will be achieved by using geophysical, geological, geodetic, and other data available for Caucasus and by employing the existing and new methodologies developed within the framework of the proposed project. The project intends (i) to identify a hierarchical block-structure of the Caucasian region by the morphostructural zoning method and mapping of specific earthquake-controlling structures; (ii) to evaluate seismic potential of the mapped nodes employing artificial intelligence methods and topographic-geophysical criteria of high seismicity; (iii) to analyse seismic events using earthquake simulation models and to map large synthetic seismic events along a regional fault structure; and (iv) to develop an advanced computational methodology for modelling and forecasting of possible locations of large seismic events in regions of high-to-moderate background seismicity. The project will use a multidisciplinary approach to analyse geodynamics and extreme seismicity in the region combining experts from seismology, geotectonics, geodesy, geology, petrophysics, and applied mathematics. Using a quantitative approach we expect to receive the results related to possible locations of large seismic in Caucasus for the period of several thousand years. This will provide a significant improvement of seismic hazards assessment in the region which will be based on simulated seismicity. The broader impact of the proposed activity includes (a) better fundamental understanding of interplay between lithosphere dynamics, fault interaction, and associated extreme seismicity; (b) developing an enhanced methodology for simulation of extreme seismicity to be used by the seismological community; and (c) increasing the arsenal of models for the study of dynamics of lithosphere and seismic hazards. Project results could be used in comprehensive seismic hazard and risk assessment, and it will be hence related to public safety and disaster risk reduction.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Russia
• Co-Investigators: Dr. Birgit Müller; Professor Dr. Frank Roth; Professor Dr. Frank Rüdiger Schilling
• Cooperation Partner: Professor Alexander Soloviev, Ph.D.