Statistical postprocessing and stochastic physics for ensemble predictions (C07)

• Subject Area: Mathematics ; Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2015 to 2019
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

Ensemble forecasts seek to quantify uncertainty in numerical predictions of future weather. We will develop regime-dependent statistical postprocessing methods, and in addition assess the effects of stochastic physics parametrizations that interact with the evolving state of the forecast model. The result will be an unprecedented comparative quantification of the value and relative merits of the two approaches in ensemble forecasts of precipitation over Germany and adjacent areas.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Professor Dr. Tilmann Gneiting; Dr. Kirstin Kober