Towards a leadtime, scale and dynamical feature dependent postprocessing for wind gusts (C05)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science ; Mathematics
• Term: from 2015 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

Wind gusts associated with wintertime low-pressure systems are amongst the most significant natural haz-ards in central Europe. Here we will adapt spatial verification methods originally developed for precipitation to ensemble weather predictions in order to separate contributions to forecast error and uncertainty from spatial (or temporal) shifts of the low-pressure system and the associated smaller-scale wind features, as well as size and intensity differences. Remaining errors will then mainly be due to local conditions, turbu-lence and convection, which can be statistically corrected training modern machine learning algorithms.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Dr. Ulrich Corsmeier, until 6/2019; Professor Dr. Peter Knippertz; Dr. Sebastian Lerch