Understanding the gap between intrinsic and practical predictability in the tropics (B06)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science ; Mathematics
• Term: from 2015 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

The theoretically possible predictability is longer in the tropics than extratropics but current forecasts are far from reaching that. Here we will use simulations with an idealized tropical aqua-channel model to disentangle the reasons for this gap for different meteorological variables and spatial scales. Specifically we will investi-gate the physical mechanisms of forecast error growth, the role of model resolution and treatment of convec-tion and microphysical processes as well as the impact of observations and the method for data assimilation that combines them with the forecasts.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Professorin Dr. Corinna Hoose, until 6/2023; Professorin Dr. Tijana Janjic Pfander, Ph.D.; Professor Dr. Peter Knippertz