Forecast uncertainty near the limit of predictability (A06)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2015 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

The aim of this project is to characterize the predictability of convection over Central Europe at different scales, in particular, the predictability of high impact weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and drought. We take a seamless approach across time scales, from the loss of predictability of individual convective storms after a few hours to potential windows of predictability where some predictability is maintained up to sub-seasonal time scales. We combine the strength of the convection-synoptic coupling with a large scale weather regime classification and search for windows of anomalous predictability. The focus on longer forecast times raises the new question of how the atmosphere interacts with other Earth system components. In this project, we will examine the role of vegetation processes that can influence predictability.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Professor Dr. George Craig; Dr. Christian Keil; Dr. Kirstin Kober, until 6/2019; Professorin Dr. Julia Pongratz, since 7/2023