Project Details
Projekt
Past Energy Futures. Energy Projections and Decision-Making in the Electricity Sector since 1945
Applicant
Professor Dr. Paul Thomes
Subject Area
Economic and Social History
Term
from 2015 to 2020
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 275341583
Assumptions on technological change are central to generating economic expectations. As a result, case studies on technology choices are valuable for exploring the changing mechanisms of decision-making. This is especially the case in the energy supply field. In order to master insecurity about future developments, energy projections are important for political and economic planning. With electricity at the core of the energy issue, planning is essential for maintaining an interdependent system of power plants, distribution networks, and consumer infrastructure. Forecasting the future by examining the past with a scientific rationale incorporates elements of adaptive and rational expectations. Here, the project focuses on how mechanisms of expectation formation have shaped (and distorted) planning and decision-making in the energy sector throughout the second half of the 20th century. Past energy futures are not only the result of bargaining and negotiations, but are also subject to different adaptations and interpretations. A systematic understanding will help to re-evaluate decision-making processes and specify general interde-pendencies in contemporary energy history. Historical projections, scientific and public debates, oral history interviews, and archival sources can provide the background for research. From a historical perspective, the main issue to determine is how forecasts and their usage have changed over time and if this indicates a growing reflexivity of economic actions. From an economic perspective, historical case studies function as test areas for theoretical considerations as well as sources that determine additional relevant factors. At the same time, a historical analysis of past projection methods is essential to reflect on state-of-the-art forecasting and energy research. The multiple roles of forecasts indicate that expectations depend on specific sociocultural contexts. The project will mirror this by addressing projections in three ways: from the perspective of science and technology studies, from a business and management point of view, and from the theoretical standpoint of model-building. In a first subproject, the history of energy forecasts will be discussed as a process of scientification promoted by various social actors. Then, a second subproject will look at actual practices of generating expectations at energy producing companies to determine the role of energy forecasts as a tool for decision-making. Case studies from different European markets will highlight the interrelationship between material base, institutional settings, and cultural preference. Finally, blind spots and malfunctions of past projections will be elaborated upon in a third subproject. By discussing possibilities of integrating historical information into the process of modeling, this study will not only help to approach the role of expectations more systematically, but it will also explore ways to use this knowledge in the future.
DFG Programme
Priority Programmes
Co-Investigator
Dr. Mathias Mutz
