Probabilistic decision making in children II

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Tilmann Betsch
• Subject Area: Developmental and Educational Psychology ; General, Cognitive and Mathematical Psychology
• Term: from 2013 to 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 246490336

This research project investigates how children make probabilistic decisions. We could show that 5- to 6-year-olds are already capable of integrating multiple information in complex environments and of performing weighting operations. These findings support connectionist models of decision making assuming that integration is a fundamental automatic process. However, children do not systematically utilize probabilities in their decisions until the age of 9 to 10 years. Probability neglect is dominant in 6-year-olds and is hurdled by only about one-third of the 9- to 10-year-olds. Under the umbrella of the bounded-rationality approach, we strive for identifying environmental mechanisms promoting children to intuitively use probabilities in their decisions. Specifically, we consider factors such as the presentation of information, self-determination in task-structuring and the format of advice giving. We expect to achieve novel insights into the mechanisms responsible for decreasing probability neglect in children. These insights should help us in designing environments so that children can participate more efficiently in consequentialist decisions.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants