Climate change and escaping ornamentals: Predicting the next generation of European plant invaders
Final Report Abstract
Most naturalized and harmful invasive alien plant species in Europe have once been intentionally introduced for ornamental purposes. Thus, it is likely that also future plant invaders will be recruited from those ornamental plants currently growing in our gardens. Ongoing climate change might create increasingly suitable conditions for many ornamental plants, particularly those with origins in warmer regions with more variable rainfall patterns. This may result in new invasions by formerly unproblematic ornamental plants. Identifying such “sleeping” invaders before they escape and spread is highly desirable, and would give stakeholders (e.g. invasive-plant managers, the ornamental plant industry) a head start in preventing future invasions. In our research consortium, we combined modelling studies and experiments to assess invasion potential of a large number of ornamental plants under different scenarios of future climate change. We assessed which of these species will most likely establish and become invasive, and which regions of Europe will most likely be affected by invasions, under climate change.
Publications
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(2016) What it takes to invade grassland ecosystems: traits, introduction history and filtering processes. Ecology Letters 19: 219-229
Carboni M, Münkemüller T, Lavergne S, Choler P, Borgy B, Violle C, Essl F, Roquet C, Munoz F & Thuiller W
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2016: A Source Area Approach Demonstrates Moderate Predictive Ability but Pronounced Variability of Invasive Species Traits. PLoS One 11: e0155547
Klonner, G., Fischer, S., Essl, F. & Dullinger, S.
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(2017) Climate change will increase naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography 26:43-53
Dullinger I, Wessely J, Bossdorf O, Dawson W, Essl F, Gattringer A, Klonner G, Kuttner M, Moser D, Pergl J, Pyšek, Thuiller W, van Kleunen M, Weigelt P, Winter M & Dullinger S
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(2017) Integrating invasive species policies across ornamental horticulture supply-chains to prevent plant invasions. Journal of Applied Ecology 55:92-98
Hulme P, Brundu G, Carboni M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Dullinger S, Early R, Essl F, Gonzalez-Moreno P, Groom Q, Kueffer C, Kuehn I, Maurel N, Novoa A, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Seebens H, Tanner R, Touza J, van Kleunen M & Verbrugge L
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(2017) Naturalization of ornamental plant species in public green spaces and private gardens. Biological Invasions 19:3613-3627
Mayer K, Haeuser E, Dawson W, Essl F, Kreft H, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Weigelt P, Winter M, Lenzner B & van Kleunen M
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(2017) The effects of climate warming and disturbance on the colonization potential of ornamental alien plant species. Journal of Ecology 105:1698-1708
Haeuser E, Dawson W & van Kleunen M
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(2017) Will climate change increase hybridization risk between potential plant invaders and their congeners in Europe? Diversity and Distributions 23:934-943
Klonner G, Dullinger I, Wessely J, Bossdorf O, Carboni M, Dawson W, Essl F, Gattringer A, Haeuser E, van Kleunen M, Kreft H, Moser D, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Thuiller W, Weigelt P, Winter M & Dullinger S
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(2018) Functional trait differences and trait plasticity mediate biotic resistance to potential plant invaders. Journal of Ecology
Conti L, Block S, Parepa M, Münkemüller T, Thuiller W, Acosta A, van Kleunen M, Dullinger S, Essl F, Dullinger I, Moser D, Klonner G, Bossdorf O & Carboni M
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(2018) Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios. Global Change Biology 24:e289-e302
Carboni M, Guéguen M, Barros C, Georges D, Boulangeat I, Douzet R, Dullinger S, Klonner G, van Kleunen M, Essl F, Bossdorf O, Haeuser E, Talluto MV, Moser D, Block S, Dullinger I, Münkemüller T & Thuiller W
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(2018) The changing role of ornamental horticulture in alien plant invasions. Biological Reviews
van Kleunen M, Essl F, Perg J, Brundu G, Carboni M, Dullinger S, Early R, González-Moreno P, Groom QJ, Hulme PE, Kueffer C, Kühn I, Máguas C, Maurel N, Novoa A, Parepa M, Pyšek P, Seebens H, Tanner R, Touza J, Verbrugge L, Weber E, Dawson W, Kreft H, Weigelt P, Winter M, Klonner G, Talluto MV & Dehnen-Schmutz K
