From disparities in mortality trends to future health challenges

• Applicant: Dr. Domantas Jasilionis
• Subject Area: Empirical Social Research ; Public Health, Healthcare Research, Social and Occupational Medicine
• Term: from 2013 to 2017
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 228989852

Why do some countries and population groups experience continuous improvement in health and survival while others are lagging behind? This question remains poorly understood and will be addressed in the project. Its main purpose is to better understand historical divergence in mortality within the developed world in order to identify factors of mortality change and to foresee future health challenges. Special attention will be paid to information on detailed medical causes of death as a principal source for unravelling the causes of observed changes in human survival and longevity. The project will build a large international database of consistent series of cause-specific mortality functions (available on line at the end of the project) and will develop original techniques of decomposition to analyze them. Three main tasks structure the project: 1) finding out how to link cause of death structures and measures of survival and longevity using existing consistent mortality series to show how higher or lower mortality from particular diseases influence inter-country differences and changes in length of life; 2) reconstructing consistent mortality series by cause for nine large industrialized countries, including the United States, Japan, Russia, Germany (West and East), England and Wales, France, Spain, and Poland; 3) analyzing trends and differentials based on all countries cause-of-death series by age and sex to propose revisions to the health transition theory, to delineate possible mortality futures and to help design appropriate health policies and interventions. New methodological developments will be brought to the following existing techniques:- the method to correct for disruptions introduced by the revisions of the International Causes of Death classification;- the multiple-decrement life table framework for decomposing life expectancy and lifetime loss;- measures systematically estimating the effects of eliminating specific causes of death on the survival function and life-table aging rates;- universal methods to decompose a change in length of life or any other aggregate measure by age and cause. Built on a very rich past experience of collaboration between INED and MPIDR, the project will bring together dedicated teams of senior and junior researchers in the two countries. Regular meetings will be organized to foster exchanges among the team members, and diverse communication tools, through on-line support in particular, will be implemented to promote such exchanges.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: France
• Participating Person: Dr. France Meslé