Urban vulnerability
Final Report Abstract
Heat stress and related adverse health effects increasingly affect urban populations and are expected to further increase in the future. However, little is known about the multiple dimensions that characterize individual and city-wide vulnerability to heat stress. The main research questions of this project were therefore: What are the dimensions of vulnerability to heat stress and how are they interlinked to each other? What are the dimensions of heat stress risk for selected vulnerable groups and how are they interlinked to each other? What are present spatial patterns and underlying processes of vulnerability and risk to urban heat stress in an urban area? And what are likely future patterns and processes under different alternatives? How far can a machine-learning approach be used to model vulnerability and risk to urban heat stress in a multi-scale and multidimensional way? To answer the research questions two levels of analyses were approached for the case study of Berlin. First, a city-wide analysis revealed initial insights on heat stress risk, namely mortality, on the aggregated level of planning units. Second, a detailed survey on individual perceptions of heat stress was undertaken. The analysis of associations between perceived heat impairment and vulnerability factors (i.e. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) allowed for an initial identification of individual- level risk factors and for a first characterization of urban vulnerability groups. Our main result is that individual physical constitution, mainly determined by health status and physical fitness, rather than age per se, represents the dominant health risk factor.
Publications
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(2013): Quantification of heatstress related mortality hazard, vulnerabilities and risk in Berlin. Die Erde, 144, 3-4, 238-259
Scherer, D., Fehrenbach, U., Lakes, T., Lauf, S., Meier, F., Schuster, C.
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(2013): Spatial Modeling of Heat Stress in Berlin. Conference of the Association of Geographic Information Laboratories for Europe AGILE 2013, Leuven, Belgium
Philips, A., Schuster, C. & Lakes, T.
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(2014): Heat Mortality in Berlin - Spatial Variability at the Neighborhood Scale. Urban Climate
Schuster, C., Burkart, K., Lakes, T.
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(2014): Land use patterns, temperature distribution, and potential heat stress risk – The case study Berlin, Germany. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 48, 86-98
Dugord, P.A., Lauf, S., Schuster, C., Kleinschmit, B.
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(2015). Urbaner Hitzestress und individuelles Risiko: Analyse von physischer Sensitivität, Umweltexposition und Anpassungskapazität. Deutscher Kongress für Geographie, Berlin
Schuster, C. & Lakes, T.
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(2015). Vulnerability to Urban Heat Stress in Two Climates: The Importance of Social Surveys in Discerning Perceptions of Risk and Resilience in Berlin, Germany and Phoenix, USA. Conference of the European Survey Research Association ESRA 2015, Reykjavik, Iceland
Harlan, S. & Lakes, T.
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(2016): Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using Constellation Analysis — insights from a case study in Berlin, Germany, Urban Climate, 18
Mahlkow, N.; Lakes, T.; Donner, J.; Köppel, J.; Schreurs, M.
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(2016): Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13, 19
Urban, A.; Burkart, K.; Kyselý, J.; Schuster, C.; Plavcová, E.; Hanzlíková, H.; Štěpánek, P.; Lakes, T.
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(2017): Urban heat stress: novel survey suggests health and fitness as future avenue for research and adaptation strategies. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4)
Schuster, C., Honold, J., Lauf, S. Lakes, T.
