Rationality of Heuristics in a Changing Environment

• Applicant: Özgür Simsek, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Theoretical Computer Science ; General, Cognitive and Mathematical Psychology
• Term: from 2011 to 2015
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 201292133

The objective of this research project is to study rationality within the context of heuristics. The highlevel research questions of interest are the following: What type of environmental structures enable decision heuristics to be effective? How prevalent are these structures in our world? And, how do these structures come into existence? Here, I first present a review of the literature, identifying five factors that allow heuristics to make good decisions: dominance, non-compensating linear structure, flat maximum, robust parameter estimation in small samples, and effectiveness of a single cue (such as recognition). I then outline four specific objectives for this research project: 1) Investigate to what extent each of the five factors contribute to heuristic success in real-world environments and how these factors interact with each other, 2) Investigate heuristic performance in environments that are continuously changing, 3) Investigate how environmental dynamics gives rise to dominance and other structures that enable heuristics to be effective, 4) Specify conditions under which recognition and other universal cues are useful. The project has both analytical and empirical components, with a focus on understanding heuristic performance in real-world environments. The main underlying theme is to understand what it means to be rational in an environment that is continuously undergoing changes.

• DFG Programme: Priority Programmes
• Subproject of: SPP 1516: New Frameworks of Rationality