Investigation of past and present climate dynamics and impact of climate tipping elements by means of a spatio-temporal analysis of climate data using complex networks

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Jürgen Kurths
• Subject Area: Statistical Physics, Nonlinear Dynamics, Complex Systems, Soft and Fluid Matter, Biological Physics
• Term: from 2011 to 2014
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 190717089

The study of the stability of the climate system and the impacts of the changes it undergoes requires both data analysis and modelling approaches. Recent findings of particularly sensitive sub-systems in the climate system (tipping elements), have risen concerns that common climate models still underestimate climate change. Focusing on the data analysis part, this project aims to investigate the role and connectivity of tipping elements with respect to global and regional climate and environmental change, using ideas from complex network theory for a spatio-temporal, multi-variate analysis of climate data. This approach will be critically reviewed and tested. For this purpose, new methods for inferring coupling directions and indirect couplings will be developed and implemented. Tipping elements will be studied by their spatio-temporal interactions; this will help to understand the stability or multi-stability of the global climate network due to changes of tipping elements and the crossing of tipping points. This study is complemented by comparing modern spatio-temporal climate interactions with past changes of climate during the Holocene, including the development of an appropriate approach to compare sparsely distributed data (palaeo-data) with complex network data (recent climate interaction network). The project will, therefore, significantly contribute to the climate change studies (better understanding tipping elements) and the methodological development (new approaches for spatio-temporal analysis), which could eventually also be used to improve climate models.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Czech Republic
• Participating Persons: Privatdozent Dr. Norbert Marwan; Professor Dr. Milan Palus