How should Model Linkages be designed to analyze the Effects of Global Agricultural Trade Liberalization at the Farm Level?

• Applicants: Professorin Dr. Martina Brockmeier; Dr. Frank Offermann
• Subject Area: Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Sociology
• Term: from 2010 to 2015
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 53162462

In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.

• DFG Programme: Research Units
• Subproject of: FOR 986: Structural Change in Agriculture